Portfolio created by Hein Htet |
Home Introduction Data Collection and Estimation System's Dynamics Human Factor Analysis Queue Theory Multifactorial Design Life-Cycle Audit Economic Analysis Conclusion and recommendation Bibliography

Introduction
There are 3 main concepts in this topics namely Reference Modes, Diffusion of innovations and data fitting. Reference mode is about looking at the historical data or data from the past to predict the future behavior of a system. The diffusion of innovation is about the S-shaped growth which comprised about the rate of technology adoption, types of adopters and growth limit. Data fitting is about the measure how well our data fit into our simulation. One of the method to measure the data fitting is least square method.
Reference mode
In this portfolio, we will only focus on reference mode. Due to the complexity and challenges in getting data for dissusion of innovations and data fitting, they will not be covered in this portfolio.

Figure 3: Number of people who has a laptop from 2000 to 2012 | The number of people who got laptops has increased sharply during a decade. The survey shows that there has been an increased in number of people who got laptops from the year 2000 to 2012. The survey question asks the year that a person's very first laptop bought. The calculations is done by accumulating the numbers of people from each year with an assumption is that the laptop has been using since purchase and nothing is broken. The data in figure 3 is based on 101 responses to the survey. From the figure 3, we can see that the number of people who has a laptop roughly doubles from 2006 to 2008, 2008 to 2010 and 2010 to 2012. So, we can predict that the number of people who posses will be doubled in 2014.

The number of people who has internet connection at home has also increased over the decades. The survey asked the participants to select the year they first started subscribing internet service for their, from the drop down list. The number is accumulated over the year assuming that people continue to use internet at home since first subscription. Figure 4 shows the accumulated population of using internet at home.
Figure 4: Population of internet use at home from 1995 to 2013

Behavior of the system The development of technology has significantly affect the way people study. Based on the survey data, only 6% of students use physical book for their study and 27.8% of students bring their own laptop to study. Based on the figure 5, we can predict that more and more people have laptops to study rather than reading physical books at library. | Figure 5: Usage of different library facilities by students

Group study room at Hancock library
Computers at Hancock library
Study Space at Hancock library
Social Space at Hancock library
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